Environment Canada says British Columbia is showing strong signs of an unusually warm summer.
The agency said in its summer weather outlook that B.C. is among the provinces with a higher probability of above-normal temperatures this summer, along with parts of Yukon, the Northwest Territories, the northern Prairies and Atlantic Canada.
“Generally speaking, we can see that warmer than normal temperatures are expected over Western Canada as a whole,” said Jennifer Smith, meteorologist from Environment Canada’s Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.
She said more “pronounced heat” is expected in southern and central portions of B.C.
“These outlooks are compared to Canada’s climate during a 30-year period from 1991 to 2020,” said Smith. “It’s important to remember that ‘warmer-than-normal summer’ refers to the overall tendency, and not the temperature of individual days.”
Smith said summer precipitation is highly variable and it is difficult to say how dry it will be across much of Canada.
However, parts of B.C.’s coast, southern Interior, and regions in central and northeast B.C. are expected to see drier-than-normal conditions.
Environment Canada research scientist Nathan Gillett said an El Niño is expected to develop this summer, due to sustained warmer temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
He said while it could become one of the strongest El Niños on record, it’s not expected to influence temperatures across much of Canada this summer. He said its impacts would mostly be felt in the fall and winter.
“There may be some influence of El Niño which would contribute to warm anomalies in coastal B.C. this summer. That is not a very big influence,” he said.
Gillett said long-term climate change adds to the warmer outlook in this summer’s forecast. ECCC data shows that, across Canada, average summer temperatures have warmed by 1.65 degrees Celsius since 1948. Gillett said Canada is warming at nearly twice the global rate, and most of that warming has been human-caused.
B.C. forecasters said earlier this spring they were expecting an active spring wildfire season, with warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of B.C. at least through July.
B.C. Wildfire Service data show, as of Friday, there were 15 active wildfires in B.C.
The service said cool temperatures and rainfall are forecast for much of B.C. this weekend.
“Despite the seasonal to below-seasonal conditions for many areas, dryness persists in the far northeast, central interior and Chilcotin areas,” it said.
